Dynamics
A key challenge for ecology is the development of Theory to guide our responses to ongoing environmental change. To more effectively inform conservation and resource-use policy we need to understand the processes by which species – and the interactions among them – affect the dynamics of their communities and the functioning of their ecosystems. While we have made tremendous advances in our understanding, there still exist large gaps between mathematical theory and our empirical knowledge of nature’s complex ecological systems. How and when do species’ direct and indirect interactions affect the structure, dynamics, and functioning of their communities? How well can we predict the response of ecological systems to acute and chronic perturbations, including when these amount to only subtle changes in the environment?
To date, our contributions to answering questions like these largely fall into two categories:
- Applying community matrix methods to learn how the reticulate nature of species interacton networks (i.e. the counteracting feedbacks of direct and indirect species effects) and uncertainties in the pairwise strength of species interactions (be it due to estimation error or natural variation) influence our ability to understand and predict how species respond to chronic press perturbations; and
- Using time-series data, field experiments, and simple models of population dynamics to characterize species- and community dynamics, test ecological theory on how species interactions affect population sizes, and better understand the processes that underlie these effects.
Publications
Ingeman,
Novak
(2022).
Effects of predator novelty on intraguild predation communities with adaptive prey defense.
Theoretical Ecology.
Koslicki,
Gibbon,
Novak
(2022).
PressPurt - Network sensitivity to press perturbations under interaction uncertainty.
F1000 Research.
Dalziel,
Novak,
Watson,
Ellner
(2021).
Collective behaviour can stabilize ecosystems.
Nature Ecology & Evolution.
Rockow
(2021).
The predictability of qualitative food web dynamics in response to extinction and invasion.
Oregon State University (Honors).
Menge,
Caselle,
Barth,
Blanchette,
Carr,
Chan,
Gravem,
Gouhier,
Lubchenco,
McManus,
Milligan,
Novak,
Raimondi,
Washburn,
White
(2019).
Community Responses to Climate-Related Variability and Disease: The Critical Importance of Long-Term Research.
Oceanography.
Menge,
Caselle,
Milligan,
Gravem,
Gouhier,
White,
Barth,
Blanchette,
Carr,
Chan,
Lubchenco,
McManus,
Novak,
Raimondi,
Washburn
(2019).
Integrating Coastal Oceanic and Benthic Ecological Approaches for Understanding Large-Scale Meta-Ecosystem Dynamics.
Oceanography.
Menge,
Milligan,
Caselle,
Barth,
Blanchette,
Carr,
Chan,
Cowen,
Denny,
Gaines,
Hofmann,
Kroeker,
Lubchenco,
McManus,
Novak,
Palumbi,
Raimondi,
Somero,
Warner,
Washburn,
White
(2019).
PISCO: Advances Made Through the Formation of a Large-Scale, Long-Term Consortium for Integrated Understanding of Coastal Ecosystem Dynamics.
Oceanography.
Pennekamp,
Iles,
Garland,
Brennan,
Brose,
Gaedke,
Jacob,
Kratina,
Matthews,
Munch,
Novak,
Palamara,
Rall,
Rosenbaum,
Tabi,
Ward,
Williams,
Ye,
Petchey
(2019).
The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting.
Ecological Monographs.
Koslicki,
Novak
(2018).
Exact probabilities for the indeterminacy of complex networks as perceived through press perturbations.
Journal of Mathematical Biology.
Witman,
Smith,
Novak
(2017).
Experimental demonstration of a trophic cascade in the Galápagos rocky subtidal: Effects of consumer identity and behavior.
PLOS ONE.
Hughes,
Beas-Luna,
Barner,
Brewitt,
Brumbaugh,
Cerny-Chipman,
Close,
Coblentz,
Nesnera,
Drobnitch,
Figurski,
Focht,
Friedman,
Freiwald,
Heady,
Heady,
Hettinger,
Johnson,
Karr,
Mahoney,
Moritsch,
Osterback,
Reimer,
Robinson,
Rohrer,
Rose,
Sabal,
Segui,
Shen,
Sullivan,
Zuercher,
Raimondi,
Menge,
Grorud-Colvert,
Novak,
Carr
(2017).
Long-Term Studies Contribute Disproportionately to Ecology and Policy.
BioScience.
Samhouri,
Stier,
Hennessey,
Novak,
Halpern,
Levin
(2017).
Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management.
Nature Ecology & Evolution.
Novak,
Yeakel,
Noble,
Doak,
Emmerson,
Estes,
Jacob,
Tinker,
Wootton
(2016).
Characterizing species interactions to understand press perturbations: What is the community matrix?.
Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics.
Iles,
Novak
(2016).
Complexity increases predictability in allometrically constrained food webs.
The American Naturalist.
Stier,
Samhouri,
Novak,
Marshall,
Ward,
Holt,
Levin
(2016).
Ecosystem context and historical contingency in apex predator recoveries.
Science Advances.
Ingeman
(2016).
Effects of predator introductions on population and community dynamics.
Oregon State University (PhD).
Krumhansl,
Okamoto,
Rassweiler,
Novak,
Bolton,
Cavanaugh,
Connell,
Johnson,
Konar,
Ling,
Micheli,
Norderhaug,
Pérez-Matus,
Sousa-Pinto,
Reed,
Salomon,
Shears,
Wernberg,
Anderson,
Barrett,
Buschmann,
Carr,
Caselle,
Derrien-Courtel,
Edgar,
Edwards,
Estes,
Goodwin,
Kenner,
Kushner,
Moy,
Nunn,
Steneck,
Vásquez,
Watson,
Witman,
Byrnes
(2016).
Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Borrelli,
Allesina,
Amarasekare,
Arditi,
Chase,
Damuth,
Holt,
Logofet,
Novak,
Rohr,
Rossberg,
Spencer,
Tran,
Ginzburg
(2015).
Selection on stability across ecological scales.
Trends in Ecology & Evolution.
Yeakel,
Stiefs,
Novak,
Gross
(2011).
Generalized modeling of ecological population dynamics.
Theoretical Ecology.
Novak,
Moore,
Leidy
(2011).
Nestedness patterns and the dual nature of community reassembly in California streams: a multivariate permutation-based approach.
Global Change Biology.