Time-series

The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting

Successfully predicting the future states of systems that are complex, stochastic, and potentially chaotic is a major challenge. Model forecasting error (FE) is the usual measure of success; however model predictions provide no insights into the …

Experimental demonstration of a trophic cascade in the Galápagos rocky subtidal: Effects of consumer identity and behavior

In diverse tropical webs, trophic cascades are presumed to be rare, as species interactions may dampen top-down control and reduce their prevalence. To test this hypothesis, we used an open experimental design in the Galápagos rocky subtidal that …

Long-Term Studies Contribute Disproportionately to Ecology and Policy

As the contribution for long-term ecological and environmental studies (LTEES) to our understanding of how species and ecosystems respond to a changing global climate becomes more urgent, the relative number and investment in LTEES are declining. To …

Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management

One of the twenty-first century’s greatest environmental challenges is to recover and restore species, habitats and ecosystems. The decision about how to initiate restoration is best-informed by an understanding of the linkages between ecosystem …

Ecosystem context and historical contingency in apex predator recoveries

Habitat loss, overexploitation, and numerous other stressors have caused global declines in apex predators. This “trophic downgrading” has generated widespread concern because of the fundamental role that apex predators can play in ecosystem …

A multi-decade time series of kelp forest community structure at San Nicolas Island, California (USA)

San Nicolas Island is surrounded by broad areas of shallow subtidal habitat, characterized by dynamic kelp forest communities that undergo dramatic and abrupt shifts in community composition. Although these reefs are fished, the physical isolation …